On November 14, the BMW Center for German and European Studies hosted a panel discussion on the global ramifications of the US elections with five School of Foreign Service regional studies faculty members.
The goal of the event was to help the Georgetown community faculty and students of the School of Foreign Service consider the implications of the recent elections and how foreign policy dynamics might evolve as a result.
Experts spoke on how United States foreign policy might change in their regions of expertise. The engaging conversation began with remarks on each region and concluded with an audience Q&A session. Dr. Jeffrey Anderson spoke about the relationship between Europe and the United States. Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis discussed the challenges facing international relations with Latin America, while Dr. Maria Snegovaya spoke about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Dr. Elijah Zehyoue explored to what extent the United States will value Africa as a partner on the global stage, and Dr. Khaled Elgindy described how the new administration might approach diplomacy with nations in the Middle East.
Europe
Jeffrey Anderson, Director of the Master of Arts in German and European Studies at Georgetown University, began by describing scholar John Ikenberry’s conceptual framework for the relationship between Europe and the United States: the Atlantic political order.
“He advocates thinking about this relationship between the US and Europe as resting on two foundational bargains: one in security, the other incorporating values. But what’s fundamental about these bargains is that they rest on institutions, important institutions like NATO, like the global international economic system which the United States was largely responsible for creating, and you can throw in the European Union in there as well,” he said.
He said that from 2017 to 2021, President Trump called both the institutions and its foundational bargains into question, resulting in “arguably the worst crisis in the history of the Atlantic political order.”
“Trump’s impending assault on the Atlantic political order will sharpen these economic pressures for Europe, and will drastically shorten the time horizon within which Europe has to adjust to these new and very expensive challenges,” he said.
He believes that neither the United States nor Europe can afford to decouple from each other.
Latin America
Ambassador Jeff DeLaurentis, a professor at the Center for Latin American Studies, offered observations of the future of relations between the United States and Latin America.
“He’ll want to upend the status quo and deviate from conventional wisdom. Second, we’ll see an impatience, even disdain for process. The third observation is a deep distrust of the foreign policy establishment and the Washington bureaucracy, so much so that we’ll now have a new department of government efficiency designed to slash it,” he said.
DeLaurentis said he sees a new style of diplomacy emerging from the Trump administration.
“Some say he sees little value in diplomacy. But I would maybe say (more diplomatically) that he believes probably in personalized diplomacy,” he said.
DeLaurentis continued by saying that he predicts a geopolitical approach that involves more “right versus left, us versus them” politics and an even greater focus on the roles of the Russian Federation, China, and Iran. This new style could hurt the region’s trust in the US.
“There is a downside to this unpredictability. If the US is deemed not reliable or unpredictable, this could benefit other large actors on the international stage, like China, which is viewed as much more predictable and reliable by many countries in the international community,” he said.
Russia
Dr. Maria Snegovaya, a professor at the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, discussed differing approaches to Ukraine within the Republican party and paths forward.
“Even with a Ukraine-friendly administration in power, the situation on the front line is quite unfortunate and difficult for Ukraine,” she said.
She said that Reagan-like Republicans like Nikki Haley who tend to support Ukraine seem to be weakened at the moment. A stronger faction is emerging within the party which places more emphasis on China.
“The idea is that while it is definitely important that the US maintains an important role on the global stage, the resources are limited. The strategic priority is China, and accordingly we should be emphasizing the China angle at the expense of other less important battles and conflicts,” she said.
Many of the security guarantees the US could use take time to implement, including energy sanctions and a path to NATO membership. Snegovaya says this may stall progress.
“The combination of these factors actually suggests that it’s very unlikely that the Administration will be able to achieve radical breakthroughs in negotiations, and it’s also very unclear whether Putin will be willing to negotiate,” she said.
She emphasized that the war began not because of talks of Ukraine joining NATO or over territories.
“This is the war over Ukraine and Ukraine’s future,” she concluded.
Africa
Elijah Zehyoue, Professor of African American Studies at Georgetown University, said that an attitude that Africa is insignificant to geopolitics remains strong today.
“I think that there’s still a general attitude in US foreign policy circles in regards to the lack of significance of the African. I don’t know that this election will change that significantly,” he said.
He said that President Biden made significant attempts to give African voices more of a place at the table in international organizations and summits.
“Similarly, Harris is a person of African descent. She recently visited Ghana. She was in touch with the African diaspora in the United States. So it seems like the Biden Harris camp builds at least a worldview and understanding and engagement with the continent of Africa,” he said.
Zayu said he sees commonalities between many African heads of state and Donald Trump but is unsure whether Trump will embrace the leaders beyond the standard strategic conversations that need to be had in diplomacy. He said Trump’s rhetoric about Africa plays a role in international relations.
“We have a President-elect who, the last time he was President, said derogatory comments about Africa that I don’t think I should repeat in this circle. This has to be considered as a part of Trump’s worldview in terms of the continent,” he said.
Middle East
Khaled Elgindy, a professor of Contemporary Arab Studies, described Trump’s style as “transactional, personal, and opportunistic” and predicted incoherence in his policies.
“On one hand, he has a desire to avoid getting involved in foreign wars and entanglements. And on the other hand, the ideological leanings of those who will populate his administration and the Republican party in general, tend to be quite hawkish, even militaristic,” he said.
Elgindy believes that we will see movement toward a ceasefire in Lebanon, and the promotion of the idea that Iran is the epicenter of the Middle East’s problems.
“I think many in the Trump foreign policy team are going to push the idea that containing Iran will also then take care of other regional problems like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza in addition to the ongoing concerns over Iran’s nuclear program,” he said.
With respect to Gaza, Israel, and Palestine, Elgindy said that Palestinians are not as significant to Donald Trump as Israel is due to its power in the region.
“There’s probably no leader in the world who is more pleased with Trump’s return than Benjamin Netanyahu, and for good reason,” Elgindy said. “The overwhelming sentiment of those that he’s appointed veered toward absolute support for Israel’s war as well as an intense hostility for Palestinians.”
Closing
In his closing remarks, Dean of the School of Foreign Service Joel Hellman emphasized what a rare privilege it was to hear about each region of the world from faculty experts.
“A great strength of Georgetown has always been, and continues to be, the depth of regional perspective and understanding that we have across the world, through our remarkably strong master’s centers and programs. And I think that was on clear display today,” he said.
