On February 25, the BMW Center for German and European Studies hosted a panel discussion on the outcomes of the 2025 German elections and their implications for the transatlantic relationship. The event featured three distinguished experts: Johanna Roth, U.S. Correspondent for Zeit Online; Majid Sattar, Washington Correspondent for the Frankfurter Allgemeine; and Rachel Rizzo, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.
Rachel Rizzo opened the discussion by outlining key takeaways from the recent elections, noting a win for the Christian Democratic Party under Friedrich Mertz, though “not as big as hoped,” alongside significant losses for Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). She highlighted the sharp rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which doubled its previous performance to secure almost 21% of the vote. Rizzo emphasized the importance of monitoring how Mertz would approach Germany’s leadership role in the EU and potentially shift the country from its traditionally passive stance.
Johanna Roth provided insights on the AfD’s success, observing that “one in five Germans support or have no problem with the extreme right.” She noted that while “coalition building might be easier this time, governing won’t,” particularly for the weakened SPD. Roth also pointed to Mertz’s openness to reforming Germany’s debt brake, signaling potential economic policy shifts.
Majid Sattar characterized the election results as “a gut punch for liberal democracy,” particularly highlighting how the AfD has become “the party of the youth” – a troubling development for Germany’s political future. He placed the election in a comparative European context, suggesting it wasn’t an outlier among recent European political trends.
During the discussion, the panelists explored Mertz’s complex relationship with the United States and NATO. They noted that while some of his comments about European independence from the U.S. were concerning, the rhetoric might end up being tougher than the actual policy proposals. The panel suggested that if handled strategically, Germany could play a crucial role in building a European identity independent of U.S. influence, particularly regarding defense spending and continental security. When asked about U.S. troops in Germany, Rizzo emphasized that the current U.S. administration “doesn’t view foreign policy through the same lens as other transatlantic leaders” and might see European deployments as hindering America’s Indo-Pacific priorities.
Students offered questions about Mertz’s border policies, Germany’s relationship with China, and the troubling rise of youth support for right-wing parties. Roth warned about “the decreasing importance of facts” in political discourse, particularly via social media platforms like TikTok, increasing the potential for polarization. Sattar provided insights on the east-west division within Germany, noting that the AfD maintains different priorities in different regions.
A key takeaway from the event was the observation that the current political shifts represent what one panelist called “a psychic tear in the mindset of German leaders” regarding transatlantic relations. Overall, the discussion underscored the profound changes potentially facing German-American relations in the coming years.
The event highlighted how Germany’s recent election mirrors broader challenges to liberal democracy occurring throughout Europe and the transatlantic community, raising important questions about the future of European security and international cooperation.
