On September 12, the BMW Center for German and European Studies brought together a panel of experts to discuss the impact of this summer’s European elections on the transatlantic relationship. CGES Director Abe Newman led the conversation between Professors R. Daniel Kelemen, Matthias Matthijs, and Kathleen R. McNamara before an audience of students, faculty, and visitors.
Dean Acheson Chair at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies Matthias Matthijs began the panel’s discussion by focusing on reasons for optimism about the European Union, the domestic divisions that challenge its progress, and the role of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in its future.
Matthijs named a “new triumvirate of leaders” – President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, incoming President of the European Council Antonio Costa, and incoming EU Foreign Minister Kaia Kallas – as a positive result of the European Union’s elections.
“The EU elections were quite successful from a kind of broad, mainstream, pro European point of view. The broad surge in the far right stayed out. And Ursula von der Leyen is probably the most powerful, most successful commissioned president since Jacques Delors,” he said.
Matthijs emphasized the importance of the upcoming U.S. presidential election in shaping the transatlantic relationship. The connection between Donald Trump and Hungarian president Viktor Orban, who will hold the rotating presidency of the European Union next year is especially critical.
“If Donald Trump wins, all bets are off,” he said.
Professor R. Daniel Kelemen, McCourt Chair at the McCourt School of Public Policy, followed Matthijs’s remarks by focusing on the dynamics and repercussions of the European Parliament elections. He discussed how although the Greens and Liberals lost some power, the far-right did not experience the landslide victory that some experts predicted. In fact, Kelemen said the far-right in the European parliament is just as divided, if not more divided, than ever before.
“They can’t agree on many things: ‘Should we be pro-Putin or anti-Putin?’ There are many divisions. So in other words, that’s good if you believe in democracy,” he said.
Going forward, Kelemen believes that we need to rethink how we view the influence of the autocratic and far-right forces in the EU.
“While the far right didn’t take over at all, as some feared, it has been normalized,” he said. “They’re not going to take over, but they are a permanent presence, and they are working. None of them want to quit the EU anymore. They want to poison it from within.”
Dr. Kathleen R. McNamara, Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University, then situated the summer of Euro elections more broadly in the context of western liberal democracies. She especially highlighted the differences in political systems between the United States and Europe.
“We [as Americans] really have a very static electoral system… Europe is the opposite of that, right? The abilities of these parties in the parliamentary system to kind of disintegrate, come back together, is so much more fluid than what we’re used to in the American context,” McNamara said.
In particular, the ability of the President of the European Commission to reorganize cabinets could change future economic policy in the EU.
“Von der Leyen was supposedly going to announce yesterday her blueprint for the next commission. We haven’t gotten a blueprint yet, but the sort of things that we’re hearing in the media are very much along the lines of economic competitiveness and economic security,” McNamara said. “And I think that’s really important, because it does signify solidification on this big structural change away from the kind of free [and single] market EU.”
Students then asked the panel a variety of questions, ranging from the normalization of the far-right to the emergence of left-wing populist political movements in Europe. McNamara noted the advantages of the European Commission taking a more active role in its military and industrial development, and praised the depth of questions offered by the audience.
In his closing remarks, CGES Director Abe Newman highlighted the structural dependence of Europe on the United States and what this could mean for the transatlantic relationship’s future.
“In all of these sectors, Europe can’t produce the things to fight their wars. It would really require a rethinking of the economic might of Europe if it wants to transform its relationship with the United States,” Dr. Abe Newman said in summary at the event. “Maybe in the end, the elections didn’t matter, because Europe is stuck no matter who the parties are.”
